The government has published its worst case scenarios for a no deal Brexit on 31st October. Parliament forced the government to publish its Operation Yellowhammer documents just hours before it was prorogued on 9 September.
Here’s what the government has said no deal could mean for different sectors, word-for-word.
Scroll down for list of sectors…
For the purpose of freight flow and traffic management as 31 October is a Thursday,
day 1 of exit is now on a Friday rather than the weekend which is not to our
Exit day may coincide with end of October half term school holidays, which vary across the UK.
France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods on Day 1 No Deal (D1ND) and have built infrastructure and IT system to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk based control regime.
On day one, between 50-85% of HGVs travelling via the short Channel Straits may not be ready for French customs.
Lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in Frence ports to hold “unready” HGVs could reduce flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill ports and block flow.
The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption, the French might act to ensure some flow through the short Channel crossings.
Disruption to flow across the short Channel Straits would also cause significant queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France.
In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the rough should there be significant and prolonged disruption.
Analysis to date has suggested a low risk of significant sustained queues at ports outside of Kent which have high volumes of EU traffic, but [Brexit Delivery Group] will continue to work directly with stakeholders at those ports to support planning readiness.